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Source: Joseph David Cohen, Retired Engineer, GE Aircraft Engines
Posted: May 27, 2004
Weaning Ourselves Off Of Natural Petroleum
Total world oil production has already peaked and has been level to falling off slightly. World per capita oil production has been falling for a few years. That is due to rising world population.
China has become a big petroleum consumer since their love affair with cars which are replacing their traditional bicycles. So world gasoline demand (and also world wide atmospheric pollution) is increasing significantly.
Experts say that readily available natural petroleum will be exhausted in about 30 years from now. Gasoline prices will be skyrocketing in the next few years, starting now.
The US must open up their oil shale reserves to produce synthetic crude oil. We have a 250 year supply for ourselves. Also, liquefaction of coal can be started for production of coal derived synthetic crude oil. The US has roughly a 1000 year supply.
We must move into a hydrogen society as swiftly as possible. The hydrogen must be derived electrolytically from clean renewable infinite energy sources, such as wind or geothermal power. The US has a potential abundance of both in the lower 48 western states, in Alaska, and on the main island of Hawaii. Hydrogen will solve the energy supply problem and the atmospheric pollution and green house gas problem that leads to global warming
Both energy source technologies are low risk, state of the art processes. That is a 25 to 50 year effort, and will be just in time for us. By 2050, a world population of 9 billion is predicted to begin falling to about 3 - 4 billion by 2100. The loss of 5 - 6 billion will be mostly by starvation and disease. Lack of energy to produce food will be the killer problem unless we get started building the hydrogen society soon.
Lack of foresight and planning by short sighted politicians is our biggest problem at present.
by Joseph David Cohen
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